Shifting Tides

For years, strong support from conservative Christian communities formed a reliable base for U.S.-Israel relations. That dynamic, built on theological conviction, geopolitical alignment and shared concerns over radical Islamist threats, is now undergoing meaningful change. Two prominent currents—rising political isolationism and mounting antisemitic sentiment among segments of the far right—are beginning to reshape how many conservative Christians view Israel.

The Foundations of Christian Support

In the United States, evangelical and conservative Christian groups long anchored their support for Israel in biblical narratives and strategic calculations. Many evangelicals believe the Jewish people retain a covenantal role in God’s plan and view modern Israel as the fulfilment of that promise.

Additionally, Israel has been seen as a strategic ally in the Middle East, sharing intelligence, stability concerns and democratic values that aligned with U.S. conservative priorities. This blend of faith and geopolitics created a durable partnership.

Early Signs of Fraying

Yet recent polling and analysis suggest cracks are appearing. Among younger evangelicals, for instance, support for Israel relative to the Palestinians has dropped significantly. 

And in conservative circles more broadly, voices that once reflexively backed Israel are now expressing caution or ambivalence, citing concerns about U.S. entanglements abroad and a desire to focus inward—a hallmark of isolationism.

Isolationism Meets Antisemitism

One of the key shifts is the rising appeal of isolationist ideology within parts of the right. As one commentary put it:

“Republicans far right-wingers who favor isolationism and occasionally resurrect anti-Jewish tropes are alarming pro-Israel evangelicals and their Jewish allies.” 

This mix of inward-looking foreign policy and tolerance (or worse) of antisemitic rhetoric presents a dual challenge. On the one hand, isolationism reduces the priority given to alliances such as with Israel; on the other, the emboldening of antisemitic narratives undermines the moral and religious impetus behind Christian support.

Generational and Theological Underpinnings

Several factors converge here:

• Generational shift: Younger evangelicals are less ideologically tied to the older Christian Zionist framework and are more likely to question unqualified support for Israel. 

• Theological tension: Some Christian Zionist support has been rooted in dispensationalist theology—interpreting Israel’s role in eschatology. Critics argue this can lead to transactional relationships or even theological appropriation of Jewish identity. 

• Political realignment: As parts of the conservative movement shift priorities—focusing more on domestic issues, culture wars, and skepticism of “foreign adventures”—the Israel relationship becomes less automatic.

What This Means for U.S.–Israel Relations

The practical implications are significant. If a major pillar of U.S. political support for Israel—conservative Christian backing—erodes, it could:

• reduce the domestic political pressure in the U.S. to maintain unconditional support for Israel;

• open space for alternative approaches in Congress and among conservative activists;

• force Israel and its allies to reassess how they engage the U.S. Christian base and diversify support networks.

Moreover, the reputational risk grows for both sides: Israel might find its association with far-right or antisemitic strands in the U.S. damaging, while Christian groups risk moral and theological credibility if their alliances appear transactional or unexamined.

Possible Paths Forward

There are several trajectories:

• Re-affirmation of values-based support: Christian groups could refocus on shared democratic and humanitarian values, rather than purely theological or strategic motives.

• Broader coalition-building: Israel might engage more actively with non-evangelical and progressive Christian groups, as well as inter-faith networks, to strengthen support.

• Critical re-assessment: Some conservative Christian voices may take a more nuanced stance—continuing to support Israel but also acknowledging Palestinian rights, human-rights concerns and the theological complexity of the relationship.

The alliance between conservative Christians and Israel was once considered a near-given in U.S. foreign-policy and religious-community circles. Today, however, it is facing strain. The rise of isolationist thinking and the unsettling emergence of antisemitic threads within parts of the political right are key drivers of change. What was once largely unquestioned support may now become contested, conditional and fraught with new complexities.

For Israel, U.S. policymakers and Christian organisations alike, the challenge will be adapting to this shift—finding ways to sustain relationships, engage evolving constituencies and maintain moral clarity in the face of changing political winds.